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THE STATE OF THE INTERNET [SLIDE DECK]

2012年10月09日 杂记 暂无评论 阅读 1 次

Connected Device GrowthA major media company was kind enough to ask me to speak to their senior executives at an off-site last week.

The topic was an overview of the digital industry.

Analyst Alex Cocotas from our BI Intelligence team helped me put together an excellent deck, using slides from the BI Intelligence archive.

We've posted the deck here. We hope you enjoy it.

BI Intelligence is a new research and analysis service focused on mobile computing and the Internet. Subscribers can download the entire deck as a PDF or PowerPoint, as well as any of the individual charts from the presentation. Please sign up for a free one month trial here.

Like this deck? We'd love to have you as a member of BI Intelligence!

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Featured Comments

tiny keys on Oct 1, 4:36 PM said:

The future of the internet can't be mobile because mobile users don't participate much.They will take the time to type out their own carefully planned 'off the cuff' tweet. They will even respond to someone else's tweet now and then. But mostly, the action on the internet involves typing and they can't do much of it because it is such a chore. They read emails, but barely write them.

It's really bad for Facebook because they are a user generated content business. The mobile user can make a little status update comment and post pictures from their phone, but the bread and butter of Facebook, the real draw, the real reason to use it WAS interaction and mobile is killing interaction. Consequently, Facebook is now mostly just an echo chamber. The desktop users and that rare, intrepid, super monkey thumbed mobile speed typist are 'doing all the work' while most of the mobile users just can't handle doing anything and so mostly just sit back and watch.

There will be lots of eyeballs on mobile devices, but that's not the same thing as mobile being 'the future.' And any breakthrough that helps make mobile more useable is probably going to make the desktop experience even more awesome.

The Water Cooler
42 Comments

Comment kicked to The Bleachers.

Comment kicked to The Bleachers.

iDunno on Oct 1, 3:21 PM said:

What about people that have more than one device? families will share a computer, yet each of them will have their own phone.

j-son on Oct 1, 4:23 PM said:

138 pages with one slideeach? www.slideshare.com, have you heard of it?

Tony Smit on Oct 2, 2:13 AM said:

@j-son:

Did you read the entire article, including this at the bottom ?BI Intelligence is a new research and analysis service focused on mobile computing and the Internet. Subscribers can download the entire deck as a PDF or PowerPoint, as well as any of the individual charts from the presentation. Please sign up for a free one month trial here. [ link not included in my comment ]

You want an efficient presentation, you pay money.
No money, you pay with your time.
Now, how valuable is your time ?

jasno on Oct 1, 4:30 PM said:

That was a really good presentation. it got me thinking, and Mr iDunno is right, each household member has their own smart phone. Plus tablet soon enough. I just realized that I now buy music, books, and aps while lying in bed holding the Kindle Fire HD. I don't think I had ever bought a CD while in bed before my tablet! It's easy to follow the ads too, because they tend to be relevant to my purchases.

Bookie on Oct 1, 5:27 PM said:

@jasno:

Go back to your robot hell, spambot. It's easy!

tiny keys on Oct 1, 4:36 PM said:

The future of the internet can't be mobile because mobile users don't participate much.They will take the time to type out their own carefully planned 'off the cuff' tweet. They will even respond to someone else's tweet now and then. But mostly, the action on the internet involves typing and they can't do much of it because it is such a chore. They read emails, but barely write them.

It's really bad for Facebook because they are a user generated content business. The mobile user can make a little status update comment and post pictures from their phone, but the bread and butter of Facebook, the real draw, the real reason to use it WAS interaction and mobile is killing interaction. Consequently, Facebook is now mostly just an echo chamber. The desktop users and that rare, intrepid, super monkey thumbed mobile speed typist are 'doing all the work' while most of the mobile users just can't handle doing anything and so mostly just sit back and watch.

There will be lots of eyeballs on mobile devices, but that's not the same thing as mobile being 'the future.' And any breakthrough that helps make mobile more useable is probably going to make the desktop experience even more awesome.

randygiusto on Oct 2, 8:39 PM said:

@tiny keys:

Your comments don't hold water unless you only think about the US. For the rest of the world, their first and continued Web experience is through a mobile device, and not a PC. Especially in emerging markets like China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. Mobile users don't participate much? Really? Mobile customers [I hate the word "users" there are only two groups who use that word- technology workers from the PC era and drug pushers] are propelling the growth of data and services (especially video) exponentially faster than an PC platforms. I do agree that mobile updates are speeding up the interaction stream to where its more about flowing nonsense rather than real interaction though. If you look at PC form factor shipments, the desktop has been dead for a few years. The PC (laptop, ultrabook, hybrid) still has some staying power but it's nowhere near the number of mobile devices used and bought each year.

zamfir on Oct 3, 3:27 AM said:

@tiny keys:

A voice-to-write application installed on the mobile, would save the mobile role into the internet world. You could read the message and answer easily by voice.

leegoesplaces on Oct 4, 11:44 AM said:

@tiny keys:

This comment has a really limited view of what it means to interact with other humans, and what the possibilities are for mobile. Mobile's value is obvious once we think beyond the tiny keys. People don't have to tell their experiences - they can show them, share them, invite others to participate in them.Also, there is a fantastic utility called Swype that takes all the pain out of typing. You should look it up.

Willy on Oct 6, 4:09 AM said:

@tiny keys:

What the hell are you talking about? You should visit Africa and let be clear about it...The world has already gone mobile back here. Not only has it improved communication but increased efficiency. People are saving lives with the mobile devices, pregnant women can give birth to healthy children by the touch of a button on their phones. In fact you can even mail your symptoms to a doctor and he/she will prescribe the medication while you are at your home. Interaction? Are you forgetting something here? Hallo, Smartphones, tablets even normal cell phones have tracking applications where you can keep tabs on the direction of your family members and friends from wherever you are. Thanks to the mobile advancement data packages can be bought at a manageable price, it's easier to budget yourself. Take a closer look at this space because children might be learning through their phones and tablets, schools will soon remain to be exam centers. And I stand to be corrected if am wrong...

Shanqiang Ke on Oct 7, 10:43 PM said:

@randygiusto:

To June 2012, China's Internet users reached 0.53 billion, of which more than half is the 3 g mobile users. I and support your point of view, their first and continuous network experience is through the mobile devices, rather than a PC, in addition, 2012 a year is also the Chinese mobile phone market a turn of the year, low prices prompted people to buy intelligent mobile phone rather than the stronghold. Huawei is a very good example, many college students in China use huawei mobile phone. Because most of the people is to rely on parents‘ support.

Darin on Oct 8, 1:49 AM said:

@randygiusto:

mobile的用户特性是当前的,以后的功能支持丰富后,UGC在移动硬件上会有新的井喷。

The next generation of PC applications will make your jaw drop four inches on Oct 1, 4:43 PM said:

Henry, Alex,Mobility is transforming society in ways that are nearly comparable to the PC revolution. Very true. But don't let the infatuation with your phones blind you to the incoming new wave of applications brought about by the old stodgy PC you don't look at anymore. The price of the computing cycle has fallen off another cliff and every time this happens a transformation wave ensues. Think of it like an earthquake and the resulting tsunami. The earthquakes are the hardware critical masses being reached, the tsunamis are the wave of software applications that hit society 2-3-4 years later. Bing/Google "C++ Amp". That's the enabler of the next wave. I should write an article for BI about this.

Nope, it's streamlining and simplifying multi-processing on Oct 1, 9:30 PM said:

@Mark out West:

Parallelization has been around for decades but processors were expensive, maintenance prohibitive and application engineering beyond the abilities of most developers.C++ AMP takes advantage of practically free computing and breaks the two impediments to progress. The compiler, the debugger and the tools built with C++AMP allow developers, for the first time in history, to treat a vast array of processors uniformly. It shifted the complexity out of the developer's mind and into the compiler. That's the first breakthrough. The second one is having the compiler and the debugger understand the constraints of heterogeneous processor environments.

This is the equivalent of C that allowed developers write the same code regardless of the processor underneath. That was the breakthrough that allowed Unix and Windows. Without C, neither one would have ever happened. If you don't see the breakthrough you are not thinking clearly. When C came out there was plenty of skepticism from the old school. Those who saw what it meant took advantage of it. The rest is history. The most important applications in the world, the fastest and the most critical run on C and C++. Operating systems, Browsers, search engines, the coolest games, legendary financial applications, medical imaging applications, you name it.

JayMeister on Oct 2, 3:23 AM said:

Good job, Blodget. The analyst in you lives on.

Marc Weiss on Oct 2, 7:15 AM said:

APPLE IS NOT A MEDIA COMPANY. ITUNES, ADVERTISING AND APPSTORE IS ABOUT 6% OF APPLE'S REVENUE. NEWSPAPER STOCKS HAVE BEEN KILLED BUT NOT COMCAST OR DISNEY.

TheFree_Lance on Oct 2, 11:17 AM said:

138 slides to tell me smartphones are toys and FB is high? Super.

Michal Gallo on Oct 2, 7:11 PM said:

Tiny Keys,I would like to disagree with you. FB and tweet users are conected nowadays all the time, through their smartphones, not only at time they spend useing PCs. Updates and reactions are instantly beeped on their devices, so the interactive meassure grows by that. FB,Tweeter and Gmail is implemented into those devices and without some of them, you cannot even use all fratures,that they offer so they are forced to even create new accounts on social networks, they didn't have before. People are using Fb messages instead of sms, so definitly it won't lead into some recession of social networks.

AlephBlog on Oct 3, 12:27 AM said:

Thanks, I really appreciated this. I think I learned a lot.

busybody15 on Oct 3, 10:11 AM said:

There was an option. "View on a single page". Looks like you missed it.
http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012-10?op=1

davehendricks on Oct 3, 1:10 PM said:

Henry, interesting deck, but missing the one app that we all use and the one app that you check first each day: emailEmail is the number one app on mobile devices. Period. End of Story.

And email is the best way to market to people on smartphones, since no one uses the 'web' on a iPhone. And you can't reliably target cookie segments in the mobile environment today. This isn't cool to say, but mobile is driving huge email usage and email is still the only real unique identifier on the web. A great Pew Research report came out on this yesterday. http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/02/pew-research-center-tablet-ownership-report/

Erin K on Oct 3, 5:51 PM said:

I can't be the only one who thinks the all graph charts are the displayed wrong

dsottimano on Oct 3, 7:33 PM said:

I see a lot of slide decks, but I can honestly say this was one of the best I've seen in years. Apologies for not adding an insightful comment, but I'd like to say thank you for putting this together. Good job and you've gained a new reader.

alegg on Oct 4, 11:22 AM said:

great data.datamapp.com

Gustavo Goedert on Oct 4, 7:47 PM said:

Your article has some good information, thought trying to predict the future of the various segments of computing almost always fails, anything can happen really, and generally it is something we don't imagine...
But I think you got the Facebook IPO thing all wrong, I think stock compression (actually I think the term stock congestion is more common) is something that happens to stock after sometime it is in the market, when the market is not sure about the future of the company, to have a compression right at the IPO, and of that magnitude, really signals that the company was poorly valuated, that nobody is really sure about the future of the company and just general panic as naive stock buyers started contemplating what a mess they got into...

DS v Birds on Oct 5, 10:15 AM said:

In the slide for Angry Birds - are you comparing it with actual DS sales, or DS games sales? If the former, i'm not sure of the relevance, if the latter, the chart needs amending to say that...

Don Jennings on Oct 5, 10:54 AM said:

Add a comment...

Jake Wallace on Oct 5, 2:43 PM said:

That slide was incredibly misleading, because they're counting all downloads of Angry Birds (including the free ones) to a gaming system that costs about $200. I think they were trying to illustrate the danger game only systems are facing in this new tablet/smartphone world, but it was really a poor choice for comparison. Obviously a free or almost free app is going to sell significantly more than a $200 piece of hardware. Nintendo is really upping their investment in low price gaming on the 3DS and Wii U, inviting a lot more indie developers in to create downloadable games, in addition to their traditional $50-60 disc games.

James Kleier on Oct 5, 6:44 PM said:

@tiny keys,I disagree. Mobile users participate significantly, statistically and anecdotally, and twitter and facebook are perfectly suited to mobile; even if they weren't, the rise of media-rich, non-text based communication is growing hand-in-hand with mobile. I am dismayed to hear your experience with social media has been poor, but I assure you that you are missing out on the best aspects of social networking, many of which are tied to mobile. As mobile grows, hopefully the network effect will help draw you in to a more robust group of connections, and you will be able to experience the new modes of interpersonal interaction thriving online.

Facebook is absolutely not an echo chamber, nor is twitter. I aggregate industry news curated by people and accounts I trust (@businessinsider), keep up on the day-to-day with good friends and organize events, and check out the occasional high priority updates from acquaintances. On my mobile device, I get substantive, entertaining, and new content posted by mobile users - and I do the same.

To your point about not being able to type: it is extremely easy to meaningfully participate from a phone. Most social network participation requires little typing because it is conversational - per online communication norms, longform writing is for blogs (post link on facebook, of course), and in-depth communication is for emails (or Google+ hangouts). Last year, Facebook posts with 80 characters or less had a 27% higher engagement rate than longer posts, http://ow.ly/egjuR. Alongside twitter's 140 character limit (ideally closer to 80 to facilitate retweets), the succinct nature of social media communication ensures there is little-to-no barrier imposed by mobile on participation.

Even long-form online interaction doesn't require a laptop: google's speech-to-text and Siri are both remarkably accurate, so bulk dictation with quick clean-up editing is convenient. Also, I consider myself an average mobile social media user and I type around 50 words per minute on my android phone without monkey fingers (though I have the monkey-fingered show off 80+ wpm on typing game apps).

Though you argue otherwise, mobile actually drives social participation and engagement. Mobile users, who are probably encountering more engaging experiences to relate than desktop users, are equipped with media capture devices, used not only to capture scenery, but used expressively, to convey a message in place of or alongside

Darryl Bayliss on Oct 7, 12:46 AM said:

This graph is directly proportional to one's average wage, against their over heads when it comes to personal finnance's. Not everyone is rich enough to have Iphones, Tablets etc. You could say that graph is where we are at now in terms of people who actually have the money to not only by one, but support one. I have an Iphone, and i do use it for facebook, but i also use a computer because for me nothing beats the full blown interaction with the internet i can have with a PC. Bringing things to the Tablet, which being the product probably most likely to succed if the question is really taking over the PC. If this is the case, the internet will not die. The Internet provides far more value to ones life, than a smart phone, and because you cannot have the same interaction with the internet on an iphone than a PC, its here to stay. I personal think most people will have both, a PC and a smart device. Thats of course if they can afford it.

xiongzhihui on Oct 8, 2:02 AM said:

Add a comment...

xiongzhihui on Oct 8, 2:16 AM said:

@xiongzhihui:

Add a comment...great!

Dennis Chen on Oct 8, 2:05 AM said:

I think traditonal PC will transfer to Tablet+dock type in the next 5 years

will wong on Oct 8, 4:21 AM said:

good , me too.learn much.

surendrat on Oct 8, 6:45 AM said:

Excellent piece of research and statistics. Can I request for a download?

мягкая мебель on Oct 8, 10:04 AM said:

Heya i’m for the first time here. I found this board and I in finding It truly useful & it helped me out much. I'm hoping to present something again and aid others like you helped me.

CCDads on Oct 8, 1:04 PM said:

This made me wonder whether buying a flat screen TV this fall is a good idea. We being 40+ and kids being

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Bookie

What are these? Strikes! Earn three of them in a month, and you'll be sent to the Penalty Box for 24 hours. How do you earn strikes? Write comments that our editors kick to the Bleachers. Want to get rid of the strikes and start fresh? Write excellent comments that our editors promote to the Board Room.

on Oct 1, 3:15 PM said:

I really don't understand you guys that get up to your ears in data like that and simply don't give a shit about the broader, long-term significance of it all. That our society is turning into a bunch of bird-brains that spend literally all of our time online, playing games on little electronic toys. You have to be pretty "distracted" to miss the significance of that.

John Whitehead

What are these? Strikes! Earn three of them in a month, and you'll be sent to the Penalty Box for 24 hours. How do you earn strikes? Write comments that our editors kick to the Bleachers. Want to get rid of the strikes and start fresh? Write excellent comments that our editors promote to the Board Room.

on Oct 1, 3:05 PM said:

It's Bad Enough That You Normally Capitalize All The Words In Your Titles But If You've Now Joined The US Army And Are Going To TYPE THINGS IN ALL CAPS ALL THE TIME IN THE MISTAKEN IMPRESSION THAT PEOPLE WILL PAY MORE ATTENTION, I'M OFF. You give me a headache.

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